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What’s the holdup with Aaron Rodgers’ trade to the Jets?

The New York Jets and the Green Bay Packers ought to have a deal by now, proper? They have been speaking about an Aaron Rodgers trade for weeks. The quarterback has signed off on a situation that sends him to New York.

What’s the holdup?

It’s by no means straightforward to trade a quarterback — particularly not an elite one with a Super Bowl win on his résumé. But after 18 years, the Packers appear to have moved on, with Green Bay CEO Mark Murphy saying the crew would trade Rodgers “until issues do not work out the approach we would like them.” Still, it is by no means easy transferring a participant you not need when that participant is as helpful as Rodgers.

So let’s dive into a few of the specifics which are holding up this deal.

Trade compensation

What to find out about the Packers’ facet of the deal 

In a world wherein Russell Wilson commanded two first-round picks, two second-round picks, a fifth-round choose alongside with a number of gamers and Matt Ryan was traded for a third-round choose, the compensation for 39-year-old Aaron Rodgers lies someplace in the center. 

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Reportedly, the Packers aren’t looking for a number of firsts for the four-time league MVP. And how may they? Rodgers probably will not be in New York for very lengthy. The Packers perceive that — but it surely’s not their drawback, both. Rodgers continues to be an elite quarterback, only a yr faraway from a kind of aforementioned MVPs. We would not be doing this circus if he weren’t elite. Even in a “down yr” final season — wherein he performed with a damaged thumb for many of it — Rodgers threw for 3.695 yards and 26 touchdowns towards 12 interceptions. 

You need to know the stats for Jets quarterbacks final yr? Among seven gamers who threw a go for New York, the season totals had been 4,040 yards, 15 touchdowns and 14 interceptions.

The free-agent quarterback market has dried up. The high QBs on this yr’s draft class will undoubtedly be passed by choose No. 13, and given New York’s current observe report in the draft, buying and selling up is not an actual possibility both. The Jets are caught between a rock and a tough place. Rodgers is by far their best choice and Green Bay is aware of that. Not to point out, the Jets have already secured certainly one of Rodgers’ greatest pals in new offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett and his greatest Packers goal lately in Allen Lazard

New York has to get this deal accomplished at this level. Jets common supervisor Joe Douglas’ job probably is dependent upon it.

That means Green Bay is justified in wanting one first-round choose. Throw in a single or two Day 2 picks and that ought to suffice. If not a first-round choose, maybe certainly one of the Jets’ rookies of the yr? Both Garrett Wilson and Sauce Gardner are as shut to certain issues as you will get — but it surely’s comprehensible that the Jets can be hesitant to trade a younger participant who will probably be good for the subsequent decade for a man they may feasibly not have for greater than a yr.

Yes, it is in the Packers’ greatest curiosity to trade Rodgers, too. But it is not dire. The Packers are cap compliant because it at present stands. They can carry the contract they gave Rodgers final offseason. The worst-case situation, which is admittedly laborious to abdomen, is that they pay Rodgers $60 million to journey the bench. But once more, they will carry his contract. Plus, there’s nothing stopping them from restructuring his wage, both. Their solely important loss this offseason was Lazard, so that they keep established order for the most half.

And certain, that situation shouldn’t be preferrred coming off a season wherein they did not make the playoffs for the first time beneath head coach Matt LaFleur. There may have to be logistics labored out. They make take a step again this coming season. But it is not dire. 

And it simply is likely to be for the Jets.

What to find out about the Jets’ facet of the deal 

New York does not need to meet Green Bay’s calls for. And that is as a result of the Packers can look out at the remainder of the league and plainly see there isn’t any different suitor. 

Eventually, Green Bay will want to trade Rodgers. Everyone is aware of he is going to New York. And whereas, sure, the quarterback choices are fading from the market, they’re all signing with groups that had been as soon as quarterback-needy. The Jets are already the solely possibility for Rodgers. But as soon as we get by the draft, it’s going to solely solidify New York’s level that it’s the solely suitor for the Packers QB. 

So in different conditions, the Jets would have to quit extra for Rodgers. A primary-round choose can be a cut price. But the Jets are studying the room. They’re seeing — they’re not less than imagining — that they will conjure some leverage out of this example.

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In this explicit scenario, it is laborious to think about the Jets giving up greater than a pair of second-round picks and a participant. But as talked about above, the Packers may view that as a low-ball supply for an elite QB. And so the Packers are going to maintain out till they get one thing higher from New York.

Contract/Salary Cap

What to find out about the Jets’ facet of the deal 

The Jets can create sufficient area to match Rodgers’ contract, which incorporates $59.5 million in wage in 2023. It might be a considerable endeavor, given they at present have simply $10.8 million in cap area. And whereas that enormous quantity is cumbersome for the Jets, it is price it to them. 

It additionally offers some extent of leverage for New York. Because if Rodgers needs to play, the Packers don’t desire to carry that quantity on their wage cap for the 2023 season. They need to transfer him and his cash off their cap to start planning for his or her future. So that is what may create some urgency from Green Bay’s facet to get a trade accomplished.

What to find out about the Packers’ facet of the deal

The Packers haven’t any incentive to transfer shortly on this.

Rodgers’ useless cap hit goes down considerably if he is traded after June 1. Specifically, it goes down from round $40 million to $15 million in 2023 with a carry-over of $24 million in 2024. But it saves Green Bay $15 million this yr. That leaves the Packers with extra room to maneuver in the instant future in the absence of additional capital the trade may yield this yr.

Also, Green Bay does not want a quarterback. The Packers have Jordan Love champing at the bit to get on the subject, and so they imagine in him, too. So, whereas an additional first-round choose this yr can be good, it is not as in the event that they want it to purchase a quarterback. They can afford to money in on capital in 2024, once they’ll nonetheless have a large useless cap hit from Rodgers to stability out. Younger expertise means cheaper expertise, in spite of everything.

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The Packers may afford to wait till after June 1 provided that no choices want to be made on Rodgers till coaching camp, when his possibility comes due. Meanwhile, the Jets have each incentive to get Rodgers in as quickly as attainable to get him comfy with his new crew. He could also be acquainted with Hackett’s offense, however aside from Lazard, Rodgers shouldn’t be acquainted with the Jets’ personnel.

Plus, if Rodgers is designated as a post-June-1 trade and Green Bay does certainly save that $15 million off its cap, the Packers may very well be inclined to use that cash to offset a few of Rodgers’ contract anyway and make the deal sweeter for the Jets — in return for extra capital or gamers, in fact.

This is a fancy trade, little doubt. But would you anticipate something much less in a deal involving Aaron Rodgers?

Carmen Vitali covers the NFC North for FOX Sports. Carmen had earlier stops with The Draft Network and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. She spent six seasons with the Bucs, together with 2020, which added the title of Super Bowl Champion (and boat-parade participant) to her résumé. You can observe Carmen on Twitter at @CarmieV.

Prior to becoming a member of FOX Sports as the AFC East reporter, Henry McKenna spent seven years masking the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @McKennAnalysis.

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