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NFL odds: Why you should bet against Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Be forewarned: Dallas Cowboys followers won’t be proud of this piece.

Let’s dive into why I’m betting against the Cowboys from a playing perspective this upcoming season.

The remainder of the NFC East improved — particularly Philadelphia — and the Cowboys misplaced maybe six starters from a division winner. Are we by some means anticipated to consider Dallas goes to win 11 video games? 

The Cowboys had an unimaginable 2021 season, main the NFC in level differential (+172). But they benefited enormously from turnovers, tying the NFL lead with a plus-14 turnover margin and main the league in interceptions with 26. These numbers won’t be duplicated year-to-year, that means regression is coming. 

Dak Prescott threw a career-high 37 landing passes final 12 months, however he tried the fewest rushes of his profession as he was coming off a ugly leg harm. However, Prescott nonetheless fumbled as many occasions (9) as he had in his first 5 seasons mixed. He additionally misplaced three of these fumbles after solely shedding one earlier than 2021. After getting a colossal contract, Prescott was barely a Top 10 QB within the NFL final season, per Pro Football Focus, behind the likes of Kirk Cousins and Kyler Murray.

And whereas the potent Cowboys’ offense led the NFL in factors (530) final season, Michael Gallup is unlikely to return from his ACL surgical procedure earlier than Halloween, and so they misplaced Amari Cooper and Cedrick Wilson. Yes, CeeDee Lamb is again, however shedding Cooper on the skin is very large as a result of Lamb was devastating as a slot receiver his rookie 12 months. He then moved outdoors extra usually in his second 12 months, reverse Cooper, and dominated cornerbacks one-on-one. Now Lamb will face the opponent’s No. 1 cornerback each week and see loads of double-teams, with groups unlikely to roll coverages towards James Washington and promising rookie Jalen Tolbert. Let’s simply say Gallup’s well being will likely be pivotal to the staff’s success.

And, how about one among Dallas’ most vital strengths in years previous, the trenches? Well, there will likely be two new starters in Week 1 on the offensive line and presumably 4 on protection. Replacing Randy Gregory, who was second on the staff in sacks final 12 months, will likely be powerful. Gregory will likely be changed by Dante Fowler, who hopes his fourth staff is the attraction (Jacksonville, LA Rams, Atlanta Falcons). Historically Fowler has been woefully inconsistent, however maybe enjoying reverse Micah Parsons will assist him duplicate his 2019 stats (11.5 sacks). If not, Dallas will battle mightily to repeat their defensive success from final season. 

The solely saving grace for the Cowboys is a comfortable schedule that options non-division video games against groups with a few of the lowest projected win totals in soccer in Detroit, Chicago, Houston and Jacksonville

Regarding the NFC East, Dallas would wish to go 5-1 within the division to strategy the over (6-0 final 12 months). That gained’t be simple, with the Eagles vastly improved, including elite receiver AJ Brown, move rusher Haason Reddick and once-great cornerback James Bradberry. The Giants now have the most effective offensive minds (Brian Daboll) in soccer as head coach. And Washington’s protection might return to being a Top 10 unit prefer it was in 2020 with Chase Young wholesome; plus, they now have a legit beginning quarterback in Carson Wentz

I saved the most effective for final, so how is that this parting shot? In the earlier 25 years, the Cowboys have by no means produced back-to-back seasons with double-digit wins. Let’s face it, this franchise doesn’t deal with success nicely. 

And neglect double-digit wins, what about simply making the playoffs in back-to-back seasons? That final occurred for Dallas in 2006 and 2007.

Sorry, Dallas followers. I’m fading the Cowboys. Give me the underneath win complete for subsequent season as one among my finest early bets.

PICK: Under 10.5 wins for the Dallas Cowboys at FOX Bet

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he additionally writes concerning the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on each present on the community. In 2017, McIntyre started producing playing content material on the NFL, faculty soccer and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a playing podcast for FOX, “Coming Up Winners,” in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the web site The Big Lead, which he offered in 2010.

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