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NFL odds Week 9: Lamar Jackson dominates in prime time, best betting trends

Week 9 of the NFL season is upon us, and FOX Sports Research is right here to maintain supplying you with the sides wanted to make a revenue! 

Last week offered tons of surprises that sharps and pattern bettors throughout the nation didn’t see coming. For starters, underdogs continued to dominate as they went 8-6-1 in opposition to the unfold (ATS) (57.1%), with six of them successful straight up (SU). Additionally, Kliff Kingsbury recorded his first loss as a highway underdog in the final two seasons, falling to 8-1 ATS and SU in that span. Arguably the largest shock of all of them got here on Monday evening, with the Cleveland Browns dominating the Cincinnati Bengals as three-point underdogs in a 32-13 victory.

As all the time, we did a deep dive into historic common season knowledge to establish the best trends for the upcoming week. We additionally checked out team- and player-specific trends, which ought to assist inform you on who to guess on this week.

Let’s leap in and have some enjoyable!

Underdogs proceed to dominate

As talked about above, underdogs have constantly lined by the season’s first eight weeks. We determined to look again on the final 23 years of knowledge to see the place the 2022 season ranks in phrases of underdogs protecting by the primary eight weeks. The 67-51-3 ATS (56.8%) file underdogs have totaled so far is the fifth-best for the reason that 2000 season, with the 67 covers being the second-most in that span as nicely. 

Some notable underdogs in Week 9 embody the Los Angeles Rams (+2.5), Seattle Seahawks (+2), Atlanta Falcons (+3) and Carolina Panthers (+7.5). All odds by way of FOX Bet.

Highest Cover Rates by Underdogs Through First Eight Weeks

Since 2000

2012: 71-46-1 (60.7%)

2002: 65-47-2 (58%)

2010: 65-49-3 (57%)

2020: 66-50-1 (56.9%)

2022: 67-51-3 (56.8%)

Eagles ought to cowl as double-digit favorites in opposition to the Texans

Taking the favourite to cowl in video games with double-digit spreads is all the time powerful, but it surely shouldn’t be when betting on the Philadelphia Eagles! The lone undefeated workforce in the league takes on the Houston Texans in a Thursday evening matchup as 13.5-point highway favorites at FOX Bet. 

Almost all the information factors towards the Birds protecting, as Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in opposition to the Texans since 2002. Philly can be 8-5 ATS (61.5%) and 11-2 SU (84.6%) in opposition to AFC South opponents since 2010, with the Over hitting in 10 of these video games (76.9%). In Thursday video games particularly, the Eagles are 8-5 ATS (61.5%) and SU since 2010, with the Over hitting in eight of these video games (61.5%). And lastly, they’re 8-5-1 ATS (61.5%) and 11-3 SU (78.6%) as double-digit favorites during the last 13 seasons. 

Sean McDermott dominates as double-digit favourite

This is the third time we’ve talked about this pattern this yr, as a result of it’s the third time the Buffalo Bills have been double-digit favorites! The Super Bowl favorites are at the moment 12.5-point highway favorites in opposition to the New York Jets this Sunday. 

Since 2015, the Bills are 8-6 ATS (57.1%) and 9-5 SU (64.3%) in opposition to the Jets. Under Sean McDermott, Buffalo can be 7-3-2 ATS (70%) and 11-1 SU (91.7%) as a double-digit favourite, with the Under hitting in eight of these video games (57.1%). Furthermore, McDermott’s squad is 12-7 ATS (63.2%) and 14-5 SU (73.7%) as a highway favourite below his tenure. 

It additionally doesn’t assist that the Jets are 5-11 ATS (31.3%) and 2-14 SU (12.5%) as double-digit underdogs since 2018. Additionally, the Jets are 12-16-1 ATS (42.9%) and 8-21 SU (27.6%) as dwelling underdogs in that very same span.

Dolphins ought to cowl in opposition to the Bears 

The Miami Dolphins made headlines after trading a first round pick for Bradley Chubb, and we like them to cowl in opposition to the Chicago Bears. FOX Bet at the moment has them as five-point favorites at Soldier Field. Miami has traditionally been profitable in opposition to Chicago, going 9-4 ATS (69.2%) and SU in opposition to them since 1971. In a newer time span the Dolphins are even higher, going 4-1 ATS (80%) and SU in opposition to the Bears since 2002.     

When three-to-five level favorites, the Fins are additionally 8-4 ATS (66.7%) and SU since 2018, with the below hitting in eight of these video games (66.7%). Chicago has additionally struggled as a house underdog, going 6-11 ATS (35.3%) and 5-12 SU (29.4%) since 2018. They’ve additionally gone 4-8 ATS (33.3%) and SU as three- to five-point underdogs in that very same span. The below additionally hit in 58.3% of these video games.       

Patriots ought to cowl in opposition to Colts

The New England Patriots are at the moment 5.5-point favorites at dwelling in opposition to the Indianapolis Colts in line with FOX Bet. Bill Belichick’s bunch is recent off a victory over the Jets and wish to earn their fourth win in 5 video games. Check out the next trends below Belichick’s tenure that time to betting on the Patriots this Sunday:         

  • Patriots are 10-7-1 ATS (58.8%) and 12-6 SU (66.7%) in opposition to the Colts below Bill Belichick, with the over hitting in 13 of these video games (72.2%)
  • Patriots are 27-17-1 ATS (61.4%) and 33-12 SU (73.3%) in opposition to AFC South opponents below Bill Belichick, with the over hitting in 31 of these video games (68.9%)
  • Patriots are 88-66-4 ATS (57.1%) and 127-31 SU (80.4%) as a house favourite below Bill Belichick
  • Patriots are 64-29-4 ATS (68.8%) and 81-16 SU (83.5%) as a four- to seven-point favourite below Bill Belichick
  • Patriots are 153-118-6 ATS (56.5%) and 214-63 SU (77.3%) as a favourite below Bill Belichick

Lamar Jackson shines in primetime

Lamar Jackson has been electrical this yr, throwing for over 1,600 yards and speeding for over 500 as nicely. The former MVP has accounted for 15 cross touchdowns and rushed for 2 as nicely, with simply six interceptions so far. With him and the Baltimore Ravens enjoying the New Orleans Saints on Monday evening this week, we determined to take a look at how he performs in prime time. The outcomes have been telling, as Jackson is 9-6 ATS (60%) and a whopping 11-4 SU (73.3%) in video games performed at 8 PM E.T or later for his profession. 

Furthermore, the Ravens are 5-2 ATS (71.4%) and SU in opposition to the Saints since 1996 and have additionally been dominant below John Harbaugh’s watch. Under his tenure, Baltimore is 8-5 ATS (61.5%) and 10-3 SU (76.9%) in opposition to NFC South opponents in addition to 11-7 ATS (61.1%) and SU in Monday evening video games. On the opposite aspect of the coin, the Saints are simply 2-9 ATS (18.2%) in Monday video games since 2015. 

So are you prepared to position some NFL Week 9 bets? Head over to FOX Bet now for all of your wagers!

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