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MLB odds: Keep it simple, bet on the Atlanta Braves to win it all

By Edward Egros
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst

Class is again in session! Today’s matter is a simple one: the Atlanta Braves

If my pals know something about me, it’s that I’m not one to brag (quiet Jason McIntyre). Last month, I defined the worth of betting on the Braves to win the World Series. Since then, Atlanta owns the longest successful streak this season and has trimmed the division deficit roughly in half (let’s faux I didn’t additionally suggest the Phillies). 

This midseason run already appears eerily comparable to the 2021 season. After a brutal begin, the Braves pieced collectively sufficient victories to keep aggressive, misplaced a celebrity, continued successful, then pulled off sufficient postseason upsets to win a championship. 

This time, whereas Atlanta might be with out second baseman Ozzie Albies for at the least just a few months because of a fractured foot, they do have the providers of Ronald Acuña Jr. He has been about as constant an influence hitter as any large leaguer. For occasion, Acuña’s common exit velocity, which measures how briskly the ball travels after making contact with the bat, ranks in the 95th percentile in MLB.   

With all of this success comes the large playing query. Is there potential for backing the Braves in futures markets? 

Let’s break down which Atlanta wagers I like, with odds courtesy of FOX Bet

PICK: Braves to win World Series (+1600 at FOX Bet)

One factor value mentioning now’s how MLB has revamped its postseason and the way we should always method our futures otherwise, regardless of which ballclubs you’re betting on.

Starting this postseason, 12 groups will make the playoffs. The two division winners with the finest report from every league get automated byes into the Division Series. The different 4 groups in every league will play a best-of-three collection: the third-place division winner faces the third-place wild card staff, whereas the first-place and second-place wild card groups play one another. 

Another wrinkle is that the first-round will solely happen at one location. The third-place division winner will host its opening spherical, whereas the first-place wild card staff will host theirs. 

As with any sport, enjoying fewer video games en route to a championship is at all times higher. The higher likelihood of accidents and exhaustion from extra video games outweighs any positives to be gained from further area time. Because the baseball postseason is so risky, considered one of the safer issues you are able to do is to bet on groups that at the moment do not have a bye, however can play effectively sufficient to earn one after Game 162. 

Aggregating a number of projections, Atlanta at the moment has a 26.55% likelihood of successful the NL East. However, given the state of the NL Central, if the Braves win their division, they’ve a strong likelihood of incomes a bye, thereby shortening their odds of successful it all. 

This means it shouldn’t be too late to hop on the Atlanta bandwagon from a playing perspective. Yes, there may be nonetheless time to take the Braves to win the World Series. I might additionally sprinkle some cash on them to win the division (+300 at FOX Bet) and pennant (+800 at FOX Bet).

PICK: Spencer Strider to win NL Rookie of the Year (+1400 at FOX Bet)

Since 2011, roughly one-third of all Rookie of the Year honors have gone to somebody who has hung out on the mound. 

This season, voters could already be predisposed to choosing a pitcher due to how dominant lots of them have been. While MacKenzie Gore of the Padres is a large betting favourite, Strider ranks second among league rookies in FanGraphs WAR. He solely has three much less strikeouts than Gore, and, thanks to a harmful fastball, has allowed fewer house runs.

Also, when analyzing Statcast knowledge, it’s clever to search for pitchers who have a better expected batting average allowed than actual batting average allowed, as a result of it can recommend higher outings in the future. Strider’s distinction of -0.024 makes him a price play proper now, particularly at +1400.

As for a perhaps bet, I lately recommended Max Fried for Cy Young. Hopefully, you snagged him at these odds, as a result of they’ve shortened from +2000 to +1500. The closing line worth could have dissipated on Fried, although he’s having a dominant season and will nonetheless be in the combine at the finish. If you missed out on him at 20-1, give him a have a look at this worth.

Lastly, earlier than you name me a Braves homer, here’s a bet I DO NOT like: 

Ronald Acuña Jr. to win NL MVP (+1600 at FOX Bet)

How might I am going in opposition to Acuña after utilizing him as proof for why the Braves might repeat? Because there’s no worth in his present quantity. 

Let’s maintain it easy and solely have a look at slugging proportion. Using a easy projection earlier than the season started, Acuña was going to have the third-best SLG in the NL (.532). Instead, it ranks outdoors the prime 15 (.516).   

If you consider there may be worth in preseason projections, then Acuña’s hitting ought to enhance the remainder of the season. After all, the Braves outfielder missed the first three weeks of the season recovering from his knee harm. However, there might not be sufficient time for him to surpass the likes of Mookie Betts and Manny Machado. So this bet is a move for me at this quantity.

To sum it up, betting on the Braves to win the division, NL and World Series are nonetheless good bets, as is taking Spencer Strider to win Rookie of the Year. So run, do not stroll to FOX Bet to get your ATL wagers in.

Again, that is class: Do it for the A. 

Edward Egros is a sports activities analytics broadcaster/author, a sports activities betting analyst, an information scientist and an adjunct professor of statistics at Pepperdine University. These passions have led him to turn into a chilly brew aficionado. Edward beforehand labored in native tv, notably at the Fox affiliate in Dallas overlaying the Rangers, Cowboys and highschool soccer.  Follow him on Twitter @EdWithSports. 

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